What will be the message of general elections?
April 8, 2009 by Amitabh Tripathi
India has been gripped under fever of general elections as after one week first phase of voting in few constituencies will take place. Being the largest democracy of the world general elections in India always has some curiosity across the world. For last six decades India has proved credibility of its democratic institutions as well as maturity and it has received praise and respect for its successful functioning of these institutions. The final result of 15th Loksabha will come out on 16th on May and verdict of people will be wide open but it is quite clear that process of formation of the new government will last long just like Israel where several political groups come together to form a government and it took few weeks to materialize. Indian next parliament is very much going to receive fractured mandate and no single political party or formation will be able to muster the majority figure of 272. In this article election results which have been supposed will not be discussed because it is quite clear that anything could happen after elections and any political group or party could go in any camp irrespective of its ideological leanings except of two things that Congress and BJP will not join each other and Left parties will not join BJP.
In this article I want to decipher the message which this election contains. Two important and path breaking phenomenon has took place in this election as this election is not fought with any ideology and every political party whether it is Congress, BJP or even Left are not focused on their ideology and they are flexible enough to accommodate any political group. Second important phenomenon has come out that first time two national parties Congress and BJP will not be able to cross the magic figure of 272 if their tally will be combined together. This phenomenon has been translated into various ways and some analysts are of the view that regional aspirations have eclipsed national agenda. But apart from this general election has few other messages also which has been unnoticed from almost every commentator and analysts.
This general election reminds the verdict of people in1989 when first time coalition government was formed and on Anti-congress platform BJP and Left parties come together to extend outside support to a non congress government. But this verdict was not absolute in itself and if this verdict of people has been scrutinized it was quite clear that people were preparing themselves for next general elections. In 1991 unfortunately leader of congress party Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated and because of sympathy wave congress was able to garner the support of people of India but it was unable to get simple majority and new prime minister P V Narsimharao decided not to get the support of Left and instead managed it anyway. It was time when Indian politics witnessed the surge of BJP which some people call right wing political party some call it Hindu nationalist but surge of BJP in Indian politics was proportionate to collapse of Soviet Union in global map and it was not a coincidence because people witnessed how a prime minister of Congress party reversed the age old economic and foreign policy of Nehru to go for economic liberalization as well as opening the diplomatic relations with Israel. Once this trend took place almost all the governments at centre followed the same path and no one reversed the policies. Now 20 years have passed after 1989 when first coalition government was formed at centre and this verdict of people was result of a churning in Indian society which was highly influenced with some aspirations of change at national and international level.
Message of this general election is again going to be the same as in 1989 as precursor to some change proportionate to global climate. As we have discussed earlier that this election is not going to be fought on any ideology and this election is going to be proved as an illusion where every thing have to be decided once polls are over. Electorates are totally confused in their selection of party or candidates because they are unable to distinguish parties in their conviction and commitment. As per example various survey from different media house prove that terrorism is the main issue among electorates but they are not voting any party on this issue because both BJP and Congress are the same on this issue as both are apologetic for Muslims, both are not identifying enemy even skip to name it and if Congress party don’t want any discussion on this issue because of so called Muslim sentiments on the other hand BJP measure this issue in electoral success as few months ago in four assembly elections BJP was aggressive on this issue in encircling Congress for its failure to tame terrorism but after 26\11 when it was not able to capitalize it politically it shed the issue and raise it occasionally to keep reminding people that this issue still has a place in its manifesto. This hodgepodge has made electorates indifferent towards any political party on this issue.Â
BJP and Congress both have created an ideological vacuum in society and instead have adopted the path of governance to broaden its base. BJP has focused more and more on governance, developments and achievements of its governments in provinces but has not come out with specific programs on ideological issues which have made BJP identified as right wing Hindu nationalist party. BJP ceased the process of ideological education to society and its cadres and emphasized them to become a courier or messenger of leadership rather than ideology. once BJP has proved itself as tool of governance and used ideology only for speeches without execution Congress got the breathing space and revived itself. But at the same time Congress did not emphasize on any ideological issues and its ideology was based on criticizing BJP. Knowing very well that nehruvian socialism or foreign policy or any other Nehruvian ideology has no relevance in present context Congress recited it as their custom and tradition as it was witnessed during some speech of Congress president Mrs Sonia Gandhi that India has been unaffected by recession because of economic policies of Congress which has been adopted by Nehru and Indira Gandhi. It clearly indicates that Congress does not want to do any work on its ideology to define it according to circumstances.Â
Development and governance in itself is a big issue and welfare of society is paramount duty of any government but society could not be driven only by agenda of development because nations are also driven by their cultural heritage and burden of history. In Indian context this development has some important implications also. 1991 was the decade when India witnessed the surge of BJP and globally it witnessed fall of Soviet Union. After the fall of Soviet Union all the leftist in India who have infiltrated into major academic institutions were exposed to threat of survival and very shrewdly they converted themselves into secularists and find a new enemy in form of Hindu nationalists. In this process they collaborated with Islamists in India which alliance vocally comes out globally after the destruction of twin towers in United States in 2001? After 2001 alliance of secularists (read it leftists) and Islamists has become more vocal and active in India. For last few years they were confined in academia and Media but after 2004 when they were able to get enough number in parliament to dictate the terms for almost five years their political ambitions has become lustrous and in this general election they are openly collaborating with Islamists and Muslim organizations to push the agenda of Political Islam.
In this election Muslim organizations has come out with their political ambitions and they are issuing orders for fellow Muslims for tactical voting according to their strength in every parliamentary constituencies. As few news papers have published that major Muslim organizations are planning to appeal jointly to Muslims to support Third front but at the same time not at the cost of their interest in their constituencies. Third front which has been formed as an alternate platform to test the water whether it is possible to galvanize the political parties on anti congress and Anti BJP front to push the agenda of political Islam with leftist collaboration in the name of secularism. It is very much evident that this time Left parties are not going to get much success to sustain their previous strength in parliament but their collaboration with Islamists for political gain would have some implications. As we are seeing in Indian context that secularists who are hobnobbing with Islamists are putting so much pressure on any initiative to counter terrorism and asking for proportionality in dealing with terrorism as well as Islamic aspirations. In near future it would become tougher to deal with these issues as Muslim organizations have become so active to educate Muslims with some false theory of atrocity on Muslims.
As BJP has succumbed to the pressure of secularists and refrained itself from any debate on the aspirations of political Islam, its impact on India and role of Islamic motivation in terrorism. On the other hand Muslim organizations and Islamic institutions are indulged in massive propaganda of partiality for Muslims in existing system. Intellectual Muslims say that Indian government is lying about the population of Muslims in India because once it would admit it will be bound to give them equal share. In coming days secularists will come out open in support of Muslim demands and any resistance from Hindu individual or organization will be branded as communal. As we have witnessed in the case of BJP candidate Varun Gandhi who was condemned from every walk of life from Media to politicians because no one was ready to go into the circumstances which provoke these incidents. Even BJP played cautious role on this issue as usual with hodgepodge taking the benefit of Hindu sympathy and keeping secularists in good humor also.Â
This general election has a message which has been unnoticed that Muslim assertion is visible with all its political ambitions and they have crafted their strategy very carefully to push their agenda with non-Muslim faces in the name of secularism. In the name of secularism lot of damage has been done to this country and this self denial will prove very costly to all of us. Because neither we have identified threat and nor we have any plan to fight it. As in 1980’s Nobel prize winner V S Naipaul has predicted to west that Muslims are living in two circles as they want to exploit the idioms and dynamism of Western culture without shedding their Islamic aspirations and goal and now it is true in Indian context also. After this general elections India will witness Muslim assertion in India equipped with global phenomenon of theory of atrocity on Muslims and Islam is being targeted by its adversaries. Let us see this Muslim assertion would be proportionate to Hindu resistance.
Last 5 posts by Amitabh Tripathi
- Has India really moved on? – October 2nd, 2010
- Israel’s Muslims reach out: strategy, desperation or appeasement? – September 27th, 2010
- Time to policy shift not to bleed and weep – September 26th, 2010
- Buying the peace on higher cost – October 4th, 2009
- The Goldstone Report – A Study in Bias – September 17th, 2009