The Limits of Terrorism

Does terrorism work, meaning, does it achieve its perpetrators’ objectives?

With terror attacks having become a routine and nearly daily occurrence, especially in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, the conventional wisdom holds that terrorism works very well. For example, the late Ehud Sprinzak of the Hebrew University ascribed the prevalence of suicide terrorism to its “gruesome effectiveness.” Robert Pape of the University of Chicago argues that suicide terrorism is growing “because terrorists have learned that it pays.” Harvard law professor Alan M. Dershowitz titled one of his books Why Terrorism Works.

But Max Abrahms, a fellow at Stanford University, disputes this conclusion, noting that they focus narrowly on the well-known but rare terrorist victories – while ignoring the much broader, if more obscure, pattern of terrorism’s failures. To remedy this deficiency, Abrahms took a close look at each of the 28 terrorist groups so designated by the U.S. Department of State since 2001 and tallied how many of them achieved its objectives.

His study, “Why Terrorism Does Not Work,” finds that those 28 groups had 42 different political goals and that they achieved only 3 of those goals, for a measly 7 percent success rate. Those three victories would be: (1) Hezbollah’s success at expelling the multinational peacekeepers from Lebanon in 1984, (2) Hezbollah’s success at driving Israeli forces out of Lebanon in 1985 and 2000, and (3) the Tamil Tiger’s partial success at winning control over areas of Sri Lanka after 1990.

That’s it. The other 26 groups, from the Abu Nidal Organization and Al-Qaeda and Hamas to Aum Shinriko and Kach and the Shining Path, occasionally achieved limited success but mostly failed completely. Abrahms draws three policy implications from the data.

Guerrilla groups that mainly attack military targets succeed more often than terrorist groups that mainly attack civilian targets. (Terrorists got lucky in the Madrid attack of 2004.)
Terrorists find it “extremely difficult to transform or annihilate a country’s political system”; those with limited objectives (such as acquiring territory) do better than those with maximalist objectives (such as seeking regime change).
Not only is terrorism “an ineffective instrument of coercion, but … its poor success rate is inherent to the tactic of terrorism itself.” This lack of success should “ultimately dissuade potential jihadists” from blowing up civilians.
This final implication, of frequent failure leading to demoralization, suggests an eventual reduction of terrorism in favor of less violent tactics. Indeed, signs of change are already apparent.

 

 
At the elite level, for example the former jihad theorist, Sayyid Imam al-Sharif (a.k.a. Dr. Fadl), now denounces violence: “We are prohibited from committing aggression,” he writes, “even if the enemies of Islam do that.”

On the popular level, the Pew Research Center’s 2005 Global Attitudes Project found that “support for suicide bombings and other terrorist acts has fallen in most Muslim-majority nations surveyed” and “so too has confidence in Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.” Likewise, a 2007 Program on International Policy Attitudes study found that “Large majorities in all countries oppose attacks against civilians for political purposes and see them as contrary to Islam. … Most respondents … believe that politically-motivated attacks on civilians, such as bombings or assassinations, cannot be justified.”

On the practical level, terrorist groups are evolving. Several of them – specifically in Algeria, Egypt, and Syria – have dropped violence and now work within the political system. Others have taken on non-violent functions – Hezbollah delivers medical services and Hamas won an election. If Ayatollah Khomeini and Osama bin Laden represent Islamism’s first iteration, Hezbollah and Hamas represent a transitional stage, and Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, arguably the world’s most influential Islamist, shows the benefits of going legitimate.

But if going the political route works so well, why does Islamist violence continue and even expand? Because they are not always practical. Rita Katz of the SITE Intelligence Group explains: “Engaged in a divine struggle, jihadists measure success not by tangible victories in this life but by God’s eternal benediction and by rewards received in the hereafter.”

In the long term, however, Islamists will likely recognize the limits of violence and increasingly pursue their repugnant goals through legitimate ways. Radical Islam’s best chance to defeat us lies not in bombings and beheadings but in classrooms, law courts, computer games, television studios, and electoral campaigns.

We are on notice.

Europe jihadist push goes underground

William Maclean

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Prisons and private homes have taken over from mosques as recruiting hubs for Islamist radicals in Europe, a shift that cannot be tackled simply by short-term government security measures, an academic said on Wednesday.

Under pressure from state surveillance and disapproval from local communities, activists who once trawled high-profile mosques for recruits increasingly use more discreet venues including makeshift prayer halls and bookshops, said Peter Neumann, a political scientist at Kings College, London. “This pattern of withdrawal from open agitation is consistent across Western Europe,” said Neumann, author of “Joining al Qaeda,” a report on radicalisation in Europe published by an independent British-based think-tank.

“A lot of open activities that used to go on at mosques are now taking place in private flats and apartments, as mosques themselves become more vigilant and clamp down,” he said in an interview on the sidelines of a security conference in Belgium.

“It’s been driven underground. It’s much more difficult for people like Abu Hamza to be operating out in the open, although it doesn’t mean they have gone away,” he told Reuters.

He was referring to Abu Hamza al-Masri, a firebrand Muslim preacher who acted as a magnet for radicals drawn to his mosque in north London in the 1990s, an easy surveillance target for police watching out for such activities.

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Clerics urge new jihad over Gaza

At a weekend meeting in Istanbul, 200 religious scholars and clerics met senior Hamas officials to plot a new jihad centred on Gaza.

The BBC’s Bill Law was the only Western journalist at the meeting.

In a hall crowded with conservative Sunni Muslim sheikhs and scholars, in a hotel close to Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport speaker after speaker called for jihad against Israel in support of Hamas.

The choice of Turkey was significant. Arab hardliners were keen to put aside historic differences with the Turks.

As one organiser put it: “During the past 100 years relations have been strained but Palestine has brought us together.”

Many delegates spoke appreciatively of the protest by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who stormed out of a Davos debate on Gaza two weeks ago.  
 Gaza gives us power, it solves our differences… Palestine is a legitimate theatre of operations for jihad

Mohsen al-Awajy, Saudi religious scholar

The conference, dubbed the Global Anti-Aggression Campaign, also gave impetus to Sunni clerics concerned about the growing power of Hezbollah, the Shia movement backed by Iran, which rose to international prominence in its own war with Israel in 2006.

“Gaza is a gift,” the Saudi religious scholar Mohsen al-Awajy told me. He and other delegates repeatedly referred to the Gaza war as “a victory”.

“Gaza,” he continued, “gives us power, it solves our differences. We are all now in a unified front against Zionism.”

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Somali radicals ‘importing terror to UK

Dozens of Islamic extremists have returned to Britain from terror training camps in Somalia, the British security services believe.

Intelligence analysts are worried that they may attempt to launch attacks in this country or use the kudos from having trained and fought in Somalia to try to attract new recruits. The issue was raised by Jonathan Evans, the head of MI5, in his first interview last month.

In the US, the outgoing head of the CIA, Michael Hayden, has said that Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia in late 2006 “catalysed” expatriate Somalis around the world.

An investigation for Channel 4 News, to be broadcast tonight, also reveals that a suicide bomber who grew up in Ealing is thought to have blown himself up in an attack in Somalia that killed more than 20 soldiers.

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Qaeda figure calls for attacks on new Somali govt

DUBAI (Reuters) – An al Qaeda leader, in a video released on Islamist websites on Friday, urged Somali militants to step up attacks against Somalia’s new moderate government, which he dismissed as U.S.-backed.

“Aim your arrows towards them…, direct your battles against them and intensify your campaign against them,” Abu Yahya al-Libi said on the video. He called for a jihad, or holy war, against the new government of Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, a moderate Islamist who was elected late last month as president.

“Prepare to fight against the campaign of conspiracies illustrated by the recent farcical presidential election …, which America — the world leader of infidels — was the first to welcome,” Libi said.

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Thousands of Muslims vow to combat terror

BANGALORE: India’s one of the most prominent Muslim organizations, the Jamiat Ulema-i-Hind (JUH), organized a massive anti-terrorism convention in Bangalore on Saturday, which strongly condemned terrorism in all its forms.

Attended by thousands Muslims from different walks of life at the historic Palace Grounds the convention was addressed by leading Muslim and Hindu scholars. The Muslims declared their commitment to their faith, solidarity with their leaders and patriotism.

The convention was also addressed by Swami Agnivesh of Arya Samaj, who said Indian Muslims do not need anyone’s certificate to prove their patriotism, contributions to nation building, and allegiance to the tenets of peace and brotherhood.

Sri Ravi Shanker, a Hindu spiritual leader, and Mahesh Bhat, a film director and social activist, also addressed the crowds, praising the efforts of Muslim scholars in decrying terrorism.

The resolution adopted by the convention declared, “Islam is a religion of peace and a blessing for the entire humanity. Islam does not allow the killing of innocent persons.”

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Rehabilitated Saudi Terrorists Return to Jihad

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Eleven Saudis who were released from Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, and then passed through a Saudi rehabilitation program for former jihadists are now believed to have fled the country and joined terrorist groups abroad, Saudi officials said Tuesday.

The 11 former detainees include two who were already identified last month as members of a Yemeni terrorist group. Their names were on a list of 85 wanted terrorism suspects made public Tuesday by the Saudi Interior Ministry.

The announcement further underscored the difficulties faced by the Obama administration as it prepares to close the Guantánamo detention center. All told, 14 Saudis now appear to have rejoined terrorist groups after their return from Guantánamo, including the 11 living abroad and 3 who were rearrested in Saudi Arabia after their return.

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Qaeda’s Zawahri dismisses Obama, U.S. still enemy

DUBAI (Reuters) – Al Qaeda’s deputy leader dismissed U.S. President Barack Obama’s expression of concern over killings in Gaza as an empty gesture on Tuesday and said Washington remains a main enemy of Muslims.
“I remind our mujahideen brothers that our enemy in Gaza is not only Israel but the Zionist-crusader coalition, with America, the leader of evil … at its head,” Ayman al-Zawahri said in an audio recording posted on Islamic websites

The Zionist-crusader (Israeli-Western) campaign against Is lam and the Muslims cannot be defeated without warfare,” Zawahri said, calling the devout to join a jihad (holy war).

Then President-elect Obama broke his silence on Jan. 6 about the Gaza war and expressed deep concern about civilian deaths in Gaza and in Israel. He vowed to push for Middle East peace when he took power.

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Terrorism is a form of Jihad: Daniel Pipes

Since Islamist attack on Mumbai on 26th of November last year the issue of war on terror has again come on centre stage. This attack was different in some way as it attracted the attention of world media more than ever. But still attack on India is a war against India which India has to fight on its own. Few days back editor of Hindi news portal lokmanch conducted an on line interview with known commentator on Middle East politics as well as Islamic politics Dr. Daniel Pipes. Interviewer Amitabh Tripathi asked several questions to Dr. Pipes which readers in India have in mind on the issue of Islamist terrorism and its connection with traditional Islam. Read more